Capital Markets Expectations

 


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There is a generally accepted 5-step investment process used in professional portfolio management:

1. Investment Policy Statement (IPS) (click to expand)
The investment policy statement is both the beginning and the end of the investment process. It documents the issues to be addressed  as well as the conclusions drawn from the process. It should contain the following elements:

  • Purpose of an IPS
  • Risk Tolerance Assessment
  • Investment Objectives
  • Investment Expectations by Investment, Asset, and Aggregate Portfolio
  • Performance Measurement and Control
  • Adoption of Plan

2. Capital Markets Expectations
In order to select and combine the various investments into an effective portfolio, we must make certain assumptions about the performance characteristics of each asset class.

Parameters to Estimate

  • Returns: What level of returns should we observe in each asset class?
  • Volatility/risk: What is the distribution of returns that we should observe in each asset class?
  • Correlation of returns: How will the returns be correlated between asset classes?
  • Investment time horizon: How long does the asset need to be held to have a high probability of achieving the average performance of that asset class?

Asset Classes on Which to Estimate Parameters

  • Inflation
  • Cash and equivalents
    • Treasury Bills
    • CD's
    • Money market funds
  • Fixed income
    • US Government securities
    • Foreign government bonds
    • Domestic corporate bonds
    • Foreign corporate bonds
    • Municipal bonds
    • Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
    • Long-term vs. short-term instruments
    • Preferred stocks (classified as fixed-income)
    • Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs)
    • Capital appreciation strategies vs. interest income strategies
    • Default premium
    • Horizon premium
  • Equities
    • Capitalization: Large cap, mid cap, small cap, and micro cap
    • Domestic vs. International
    • International: developed market vs. emerging market
    • Value vs. growth
    • Capital appreciation vs. income
    • Performance by economic sector
    • Equity risk premium
    • Small cap premium
    • Exchange rate return and risks
  • Real estate
    • Debt: Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs)
    • Equity: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
  • Alternative investments
    • Hedge funds
    • Private equity
    • Venture capital
    • Distressed debt
    • Commodities

3. Asset Allocation and Location (click to expand)
The asset classes appropriate to the investor's situation are then identified and combined into an efficient portfolio.

  • Asset Selection
  • Optimization Process
  • Asset Allocation
  • Rebalancing Parameters
  • Asset Location
  • Expected Long-Term Benchmark Portfolio Results

4. Implementation (click to expand)
While the asset allocation process determines what asset exposure the investor needs, the implementation process determines how that asset exposure is achieved.

  • Active vs. Passive Management
  • Strategies
  • Action Calendar

5. Performance Monitoring and Control (click to expand)
The final step is establishing the process by which all previous activities are monitored and controlled.

  • Performance Measurement
  • Underperformance Defined
  • Communications Required

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